Exploring Change in Trend of Homicide Incidence Rate in Iran from 2006 to 2016: Applying Segmented Regression Model

Murder is one of the public health problems. According to the WHO reports, murder is fourth leading cause of death among young people. The aim of this study was applying joint point regression model to study trend of homicide mortality in Iran, 2006-2016. Study design: A cross-sectional panel (pseudo-panel) study.

Homicide data during 2006 to 2016 were extracted from Iranian legal medicine organization. Trends of homicide incidence were summarized by annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) using non-linear segmented regression model.

Totally, 26918 homicide cases occurred during the period from 2006 to 2016. The highest and lowest frequency was related to the 15-29 yr (46.5%) and 0-4 yr (1.5%) age groups, respectively. The homicide incidence rate of the country in 2016 was 2.81 per 100,000. The four provinces of Sistan & Baluchistan, Khuzestan, Kerman and Ilam had the highest incidence rate in 2016, respectively. During the study period, the incidence rate of homicide in Iran and men have been significantly decreased (APC: -2.8% (95% CI: -3.9, -1.7) and -3.2% (95% CI: - 4.5, -1.8) respectively (P<0.001)).

The pattern of homicide rate has a downward trend in the country. Moreover, the varying observed trends in some provinces can be due to the variability in mental, geographical, socio-economic and cultural conditions in each region.