Futures studies of Islamic Republic of Iran's Political Relations with United States by 2024

With Trump coming to power as President of the United States and his resignation from the JCPOA, tensions have escalated again, putting relations between the two countries in crisis. The problem for the author is how these relationships can move towards resolving problems - not complete elimination of hostility. The purpose of this study is to determine the future making of the Iran's political relations with the US and categorize the possible future of US-Iran relations by constructing favorable, undesirable, acceptable, and tolerable future scenarios.

This research uses the present-future extension method (Exploratory approach), which is one of the futures studies methods, by adopting the principles of qualitative-interpretive method. Research strategy is inquiry, application type, case study and process study.

The findings indicate that the probable futures in Iranian - American relations include a spectrum that can lead to military confrontation, and on the other hand, the negotiation and agreement that Iran will achieve its interest in it depends on the performance and implementation of the prescriptions presented in this study.

In order to achieve the favorable scenario and to avoid the unfavorable scenario as much as possible, a two-step diplomacy approach based on threat and allurement should be implemented simultaneously. These threats and allurements complement each other, and their use independently and individually not only does not help to achieve the favorable scenario, but can also lead to its non-fulfillment.