نشریه آینده پژوهی ایران
سال هشتم شماره 1 (بهار و تابستان 1402)

In the modern world, on the one hand, we are witnessing an increase in diversity, multiplicity, speed, extent, and intensity of changes, and on the other hand, an increase in the complexity of the relationships of world phenomena. The current chaotic era is called the era based on knowledge. Today, we are facing the expansion of interdisciplinary sciences in social, economic, political and technological institutions. Therefore, the Ministry of Science, Research and Technology (MSRT) tries to align with social developments and in line with the realization of the idea of creating desirable futures and long-term policy-making and planning; Choosing futures studies as a priority and prerequisite in the field of policy making and planning in the university system. In line with the realization of this strategy, a forward-looking article has been written with the aim of the necessity of applying future studies in the policy-making process and in line with the realization of the desired future in the field of research and technology of the MSRT. The results of this article will be able to evaluate or modify a wide range of current actions in the field of research in the form of recommendations and policy packages. To identify the key factors, forces, and threats caused by changes and opportunities, as well as to provide appropriate policy strategies and measures with a qualitative-exploratory approach of library study methods, document review, in-depth and semi-structured interviews; questionnaire; expert meetings; Data coding and Grounded Theory were used. review and analysis...

Since futures studies was faced by the challenge of being stablished as a discipline, and many of futurists insisted on the necessity of this matter for futures studies, this research is to analyse disciplinary possibility of futures studies. Also, it is to determine its position between academic disciplines.

At first part of this research, analysing of satisfying disciplinary criteria by futures studies from epistemological, social, and organisaional approaches was used. At second part, position of futures studies between academic disciplines was determined through applying well-known disciplines categories.

The results showed that futures studies include particular object of inquiry; body of accumulated specialist knowledge; specialized theories and concepts; various practical methods; scientific paradigms; shared discourse, language, peers, identity; and application in action. It was identified that futures studies due to its disciplinary capabilities, can be considered as a discipline and in disciplines categories, it is an applied and soft discipline and is posited in the broader domain of applied social sciences.

While futures studies satisfies disciplinary criteria, it needs to be developed in two areas: first one is development of its philosophical and epistemological foundations, so that it exits from its baseless situation; second one is its academic development at different higher education levels so that to reach its real position in academy.

Yoval Noah Harari is one of the most influential figures of the last century, whose horrific predictions of the future of mankind have received much attention. Given the capabilities of technology and artificial intelligence, he warns against the hacking of humans, widespread unemployment and the emergence of superhumans, and so on.The purpose of writing this article is to evaluate Harari's claims, considering the importance of futures research topics and its impact on how human beings move towards the future, in order to determine the place of futures studies in recognizing and constructing the human future.The method taken in this article is mainly analytical-critical. In this way, based on the rational principles and rules of futurology, Haray's claims have been examined in terms of structure and basis.The findings of this article show that Harari, unlike other futurists, has made predictions and, knowing the role of prophecy in human subsequent actions, has made his statements unprovable and invalid. His arguments also suffer from an internal incompatibility; Because the human self is called a myth and at the same time warns against being hacked and ignored! Exaggerating the future of technology and the possibility of reducing human truth to data is another problem.The result of these discussions will be that Harari's futures research has no prior scientific value and, given the many drawbacks it faces, can not be a basis for those interested in futures research.

The main objective of this article is to determine the Positive/Negative effects of digital transformation on the Islamic Republic of Iran's government. So, the study mainly examines the aspect of government's surveillance because of the broad scope of the topic.

The research is qualitative and based on the grounded theory method. The data collection method used in the theoretical sections is documentary- library. A semi-structured interview method was also used with a sample population made up of professors, experts, as well as some staff in related fields in order to assess the collected data and their compliance with the Iranian government. Additionally, the information gathered from the Interviews has been analyzed using three phases of qualitative coding.

The study's findings demonstrated that, although Iran remains significantly behind its regional and global rivals in this field, digitalism has had profoundly positive and negative effects on the government's surveillance in that country.

As a Conclusion, is seems digital technologies will also aid in ensuring the security of the society in a nation like Iran in terms of surveillance. Another point is that creating legal frameworks for data access and facilitating people activities in cyber spaces are both necessary for enhancing the government's capacity for digital surveillance. At last, taking into account the current state of Iran society, establishing trust between individuals through the legal frameworks is a crucial and fundamental tenet in the government's surveillance and use of data gathered.

The present research studies the future scenarios of social networks' confrontation with traditional media and how to form a robot journalist.

This research was conducted with the prospective research method using the scenario writing technique. To achieve the uncertainties, the Interpretative-Structural Modeling (ISM) method was used with the benefit of Mic Mac software, and to discover the scenarios, the balance of mutual effects method was used with the benefit of the Scenario Wizard software.

The output of the Scenario Wizard software showed 4 scenarios with zero compatibility (probable), 11 scenarios with one compatibility (believable scenarios), 32 scenarios with two compatibility (possible scenarios). According to the findings of the research, four factors of technological degradation Affairs, generation z (digital natives), media ownership and the power of large-scale traditional media were identified as key factors.

Possible scenarios show that the trend of audience decline in traditional media continues, and the government may limit the technology-based affairs, but the restrictions applied in the field of technology will change the trend of increasing influence of social networks and decreasing the audience of traditional media. Therefore, in order to overcome the issue of lack of audience and continue professional life, traditional media should turn to intelligent forms of journalism, including "robot journalism".

Cultural managers play a significant role in fulfilling mission of Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance as the main institution responsible for cultural issues in society. Therefore, the purpose of study is to present the competency model of future cultural managers of Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance using mixed method.

The population of qualitative section are cultural managers of collections affiliated to Ministry of culture with at least 5 years of experience in related positions. They have a degree in culture and master's degree or higher of management. The selection of samples was done using purposive sampling and semi-structured interviews with 7 general questions were continued until realization of saturation in interview 11. Data analysis in three stages of open, axial and selective coding led to the extraction of 98 concepts, 19 sub-categories and finally 7 main categories from the integration of concepts. In the quantitative stage, based on the extracted components, a questionnaire was prepared and given to 280 culture managers. The data were tested using structural equation modeling and Smart PLS software to confirm the validity of existing relationships among model variables.

Based on the final model, individual motivators on general and specialized competence; organizational contexts, cultural changes, general and specialized competence on competence-oriented strategies and competence-oriented strategies influence on cultural development.

Considering the rapid cultural changes in the society, necessary that the selection and appointment of managers in cultural organizations should be done by observing and establishing forward-looking rules.

In today's era, foresight is considered one of the most important leadership paradigms, so the purpose of the research is to base the variable of foresight on mapping; Designing a prospective ethical leadership model is based on social responsibility.

In terms of methodology, the present research is mixed (quantitative and qualitative) and in terms of research type, it is among model development researches. research community; The executive headquarters of Barman Imam and Mustazafan Foundation, the experts of the research are 26 senior and middle managers of these organizations using the purposeful sampling method. The method of collecting information is library studies and field research. The analysis methods were Delphi technique and Soda method (development and analysis of strategic thinking).

Based on the findings, 32 components of ethical leadership, 20 components of foresight and 25 components of social responsibility were obtained. These variables were also clustered in 4 main dimensions. Then, by emphasizing the variable of foresight in drawing the cognitive mapping of the relationships between the mentioned variables and analyzing it, the final model was created. Identifying the elements of leadership with emphasis on 20 components of foresight was definitely effective in presenting a comprehensive plan.

leadership includes the dimensions of empowerment, characteristic traits, moral awareness and people-oriented-society-oriented, which has an impact on the dimensions of social responsibility. The foresight variable also includes perspective dimensions, sensitivity to employees' needs, flexibility in changes and developments, and sensitivity to the environment, is effective on the ethical leadership variable.

Today, rapid growth of cities and increase of urban population indicate that urban instability has occurred in urban areas. In order to reduce instability in the cities, the paradigm of sustainability and foresight is considered more than ever. Therefore, housing foresight plays a very important role in urban planning and sustainable urban development as a basic infrastructure. In this study, Delphi method and Mick Mac software have been used to collect and analyze effective sustainability of housing in Qazvin based on a four dimensional approach and developed a comprehensive and applied research. As a result, paying attention to futurism in housing studies in Qazvin is an important issue. Accordingly, studies show that the drivers of "mixed housing development", "housing unit access to services", "social cohesion and interaction" and "identity and vitality" have the greatest impact on housing sustainability, and the drivers of " "Housing unit access to services", "social cohesion and interaction" and "sustainable architecture in harmony with local climate and materials" have the greatest impact on housing sustainability. Finally, the drivers of "social cohesion and interaction" and "housing unit access to services" have a high impact and influence on the sustainability of housing in Qazvin.

the current research with a descriptive-analytical method and an exploratory future research approach seeks to identify the most important drivers that influence the future development of the Anzali Free Zone tourism industry.At first using interviews with 20 experts which selected purposeful and 24 driving factors explored. Then, the effectiveness and dependency of each of them were determined using structural analysis method, the cross-impact matrix and MICMAC software. the results of the study show that from the identified important variables, moving from the product economy toward experience economy, creative destruction, Creating a complementary attraction with respect to the competitive advantages of the region, clarifying the process for leading tourism investments, Attention to brand management of Anzali in trade part, using practical training for local people and businesses, Use of private sector capacities in different forms and investment in health tourism have the most important role in the future development of the region. Also, the most dependent variables are investment in health tourism, moving from the product economy toward experience economy, attention to brand management of Anzali in trade part, using practical training for local people and businesses and management of handicraft. The present study showed that the identification of the key elements that affect the sustainable development of tourism in Anzali Free Zone will play a vital role in the economic sustainability of the region in the long term and will ultimately increase the competitiveness of the destination against other destinations in the future,

Factors such as improving living conditions, increasing life expectancy and lifespan in the elderly have led to an increase in the elderly in various societies, including Iran and old age has more leisure than youth due to age conditions and reduced work activity ratio, Therefore, the aim of this study was to foresight the leisure time of the elderly based on the physical activity approach.

Using the model of causal layered analysis, in four levels of litany analysis, social causes, discourse and worldview and myth, this research investigates the approach of the layered causal method to the problem. Therefore, by studying the sources in the research literature, interviewing sports and futures research experts and using causal layered analysis, describes the problem four levels.

causal layered analysis of the elderly's leisure was defined by the physical activity and exercise approach with 27 indicators and showed that the existence of problems at the four levels is necessary in order to take a more comprehensive look at the nature of problems and issues and to create intellectual order in a structured confrontation with problems.

The results showed that in order to plan and accurate policies to meet the needs of the elderly especially in the field of sports and physical activities in the form of leisure, attention to the layer of discourse and myths and metaphors causes the set of constructive actions in these layers to solve some issues at higher levels lead to a bedrock for active Elderly.

The welfare system and the future of retirement is one of the issues that has become a complicated issue due to its relationship with the growing population of retirees and the elderly and the influence of social, economic, political-legal, technological, and environmental developments. In this paper, the drivers and uncertainties affecting the future of pension funds and drawing the probable, possible, and desirable futures of these funds have been analyzed.

In terms of methodology, in the current study, integrated foresight was used to select methods. The interview was conducted with a group of 30 experts using the "judgmental" and "snowball" targeted sampling methods.

In the first step, 70 drivers affecting the future of pension funds were identified and after initial refinement, the list of drivers was localized by removing similar drivers and having little connection with the future environment of Iran, the final list of 47 drivers (Technology 11, Social 8, environmental 4, economic 15, political-institutional 9 drivers) were selected to analyze cross effects and measure importance and uncertainty.

In the present study, six scenarios of reconstruction after the economic war, interaction, and construction, edge of the precipice, heroic softening, near victory, and compromise and transition are imaginable.

Purpose and context:

The speed of changes and its epidemic in the current era has changed the type of skills needed in the labor market, in such a way that it is no longer possible to respond to the educational needs of society with past-oriented and one-dimensional planning, and to create lasting and effective changes, an interdisciplinary and future-oriented approach is needed.

The current research is among the mixed designs and it is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive in terms of data collection and the scenario writing method was used.Four different scenarios were set for the two drivers that had the highest weight in terms of importance and degree of uncertainty.

In this research, four scenarios of the future of accounting education in Iran were obtained by combining the two main uncertainties regarding the drivers of accounting education, which were described and illustrated in the final stage of this study and with the approval of experts.

Although many and interwoven factors influence the future of accounting education in Iran, but the most priority drivers according to the opinion of experts are the emergence of start-ups and the expansion of business opportunities related to new educational methods, which from the intersection of these two uncertainties, four The scenario of transformation, an impenetrable fortress, entry for the public and finally a custom production line is conceivable from the future of accounting education.