Exploring effective driving forces in the future of tourism industry development in borderline cities (case study: Baneh city)

Urban tourism due to the complexities of urban systems, the most important components of which are uncertainty, acceleration of developments, increasing urban competition, complexity of citizens' needs and unpredictability of things provided by the growth of technology and information technology requires principled and purposeful management that is not possible with traditional methods. The inability to accurately predict the future, as well as the complexities of increasing change, has led researchers to harness the capabilities of emerging future research knowledge and to incorporate futurism into the planning and anticipation of scientific and technological developments.The tourism industry is influenced by specific driver forces such as political, institutional, economic, socio-cultural, environmental and physical parameters and, development process of that depends on how these various driving forces influenced or impressed. Also, these driving forces have different communications with each other that make the future of this industry.

This research aims to identify the most effective driver forces in the future outlook of the tourism industry in Baneh city and to analysis cross effects on each other. The present research has been conducted in terms of applied purpose, as a survey approach from the perspective scrolling method in Exploratory level and based on a futuristic approach. Given the matter of this research, first, some experts and executive officials who should participate in this subject identified and then effective driving forces determined by using Delphi methodology and documentary studies. Also, structural analysis and Mic Mac software used for weighting and identifying the most important impacts on tourism industry in Baneh city. The number of Delphi participants who were identified and contributed to the research consisted of 15 experts and executive officials associated with tourism industry of the city.

To achieve this goal, first 15 experts and executives who should be involved in the discussion were identified and selected, and then the most important drivers of tourism in Baneh were identified and scored using the Delphi method and a questionnaire. Finally, cross-matrices were formed in 50 drivers and five categories of political-institutional, economic, cultural-social, environmental and physical factors. In the next step, the obtained weights were applied using Mick Mac software. Finally, ten key drivers were identified as the most important drivers of future development of Baneh tourism industry. The results of this research indicated that, with considering high value of the direct and indirect effectiveness, 10 key driver forces of 50 variables, such as adoption and implementation of the free trade-industrial zone, construct factories and establish industries, foreign and private investment prosperity, and development special economic zone are effective in the future of tourism industry in Baneh city.

The results of the study showed that the key and important drivers for the development of tourism industry in Baneh, which are the same two-dimensional variables are: approval and implementation of free trade-industrial zone, establishment of factories and industries in the region, prosperity of foreign investment, increasing private sector investment. , Strengthening the special economic zone and Siranband market, improving the economic and financial situation of the people, regional competition with Marivan, Sardasht and Javanroud and access to international markets In addition, influential or intermediate variables also play a key role in the future of Baneh tourism industry, which are: exchange rates and prices of imported goods, strengthening relations between Iran and the Kurdistan Region and developing the country's political and security stability.