Modeling of the Water Resources system of Hoor-Al-Azim/Hawizeh Wetland using System Dynamics Approach

In recent decades, water level of the Hoor-Al-Azim/Hawizeh wetland (located on border of Iran- Iraq) as Shared resources has reduced sharply. In shared watersheds, interactions between riparian countries of a water resource system can be considered by a system dynamic model. The proposed model simulated the interactions among water resource systems of Iran, Iraq and Turkey without interactions of Socio-economic subsystem over the period of 2004–2016, which can be used to analyze various scenarios in the shared basin of Hoor-Al-Azim/Hawizeh. In addition, this study has developed a system dynamics model for several decision makers with different interests, based on integrated watershed. The model was validated for extreme conditions and the results showed well-calibration of the developed model to reconstruct the behavior of different parameters within the system. The results also showed that Tigris inflow to Iraq from Turkey has been decreased significantly during the simulation period. Subsequently, the inflow to the Hoor-Al-Azim/ Hawizeh wetland during the simulation period had been 61% less than the environmental flow averagely. Moreover, the model results for two scenarios of GAP project completion and 10% reduction in cultivated area of the three countries showed that wetland inflow decreases to 400 MCM and increases to 1900 MCM, respectively. In general, the proposed model can be used as support tool to evaluate decisions of policy-makers in the region. Thereupon, results of model for different scenarios indicate that improvement of environmental conditions would be approached by management alternatives based on integration of basin