Determining the Incidence Rate and Risk Factors of Brucellosis in Zanjan Province (Iran) from 2012 to 2017: A Spatiotemporal Analysis

Background and Objectives:

Zanjan is reported as the hot spot region of  Brucellosis infection in Iran. This longitudinal study aimed to determine the epidemiologic pattern as well as the risk of Brucellosis using geospatial estimation in Zanjan province.

Materials and Methods:

The data used in this study were collected from the Health Center of the cities of Zanjan province during 2012-2017 and after the approval of the disease control unit of the province, entered the study. This longitudinal study was used to determine the annual pattern of the disease and to identify high-risk areas using Moran statistics and then analyzed using the temporal spatial cox model.

Results:

The results of the research show that the number of affected people in the province was increased after 2012 and the maximum number was observed from 2013 to 2014, however, from 2015 to 2016 it showed a significant decrease. Spatial variations show that the incidenceof the disease was increased in all areas over the six years. the temporal variations shows that during the years 2012 to 2017 the incidence of brucellosis in spring and summer was higher than other seasons; thereafter the incidence peak was witnessed in Khordad, Tir and Mordad.

The results of this study can be used to determine the starting point of future programs and to evaluate their effectiveness.