Investigating the Time and How of Tropical Storms Formation in the Nedaja Mission Area (North Indian Ocean)

The northern Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Northwest Ocean) is one of the areas under Nedaja mission, one of the areas prone to the formation of tropical cyclons. In this study, we investigated the timing and pattern of forming tropical cyclons in the northern Indian Ocean region using data from the Indian Meteorological Organization from 1990 to 2017. The results showed that the highest number of cyclons occurred in November, June and October, respectively. There were no cyclons in the months of April, August, September, February and March. The frequency distribution graphs of cyclons formed in both the Bay of Bengal and Northwest Ocean regions show two maximum points. The first peak is related to the consecutive months of May and June and the second peak occurs in the months of October, November and December. The lack of intra-tropical convergence zone in the northern ocean causes no tropical cyclons in the area to occur in the summer and winter seasons. Statistical analysis also showed that if a storm occurs at any degree in the first maximum distribution, with 90% probability we will see the formation of a cyclonin the continuation of the first maximum and the second maximum and with 83.3% probability we will see a cyclon formation in the second maximum.. Background preparation using the results of this study can provide significant assistance in tackling tropical cyclons and maritime safety.