Modeling of Obfuscated Multi- Stage cyber Attacks

One of the most important threats for computer systems and cyber space in recent years are cyber attacks, particularly the emerging  obfuscated cyber attacks. Obfuscation at the attack level means change of attack, without change in the behavior and type of impact of attack on the victim. So the highlighted problems are the complexity and ambiguity of these attacks and the difficulty in detecting and issueing alarms on time. This paper suggests the acquisition and deployment of a new model of multi - stage cyber - attacks that  enables network security defenders to create a deterrent to enemies in addition to timely diagnosis of cyber attacks. Using this model of attack to multi stage and obfuscate attacks, the attacker can imply false  classification in the attack sequence and break the dependence between the attack warnings, actions,steps and strategies, thus making changes in the sequence of attacks. As a result, network security managers   cannot easily recognize the ultimate goal of the attacker. To assess the presented model, we have used the Bayesian  algorithm.The results of the research and implementation of the model indicate that the accuracy of classification (in terms of log) for the best case of clean attacks is -0.04 whilst for multi-stage obfuscate attacks it reduces to -35. This indicates that the proposed model for multi - stage obfuscate cyber attacks is more efficient than the obfuscate logic of single - stage attacks, because of the ability to deceive intrusion detection systems and make uncertainties in penetration warnings.