Modeling and Estimating the COVID-19 Incidence and Fatality in Europe

The estimation of the real number of COVID-19 infected people is one of the concerns of the governments around the world. In this sense, this study seeks to assess the incidence and fatality of COVID-19 in Europe considering the expected number of the infected cases.

A quantitative exploratory study was performed on the top 10 countries most affected by COVID-19 by 9th June in Europe. Furthermore, this study presents three propagation estimation models of the COVID-19 that help us to understand the real incidence of the pandemic in each country. Each model is briefly explained and applied.

The findings revealed a great heterogeneity of COVID-19 cases and deaths among the countries. The indicator of the number of deaths reveals the greatest disparity between other countries with the United Kingdom, recording about 6 or 7 times more deaths than Russia or Germany. Infection fatality rate (IFR) tends to be a more reliable indicator when analyzing data because it is less dependent on the number of tests performed.

Several estimation models can be used to determine the incidence of COVID-19. However, their results in European countries are still quite asymmetrical although they are more reliable than just looking at the perspective of the number of cases or deaths recorded. The infection fatality rate (IFR) emerges as a more accurate indicator by estimating the expected number of registered cases, which includes asymptomatic cases and patients with mild symptoms that are not known and reported by health authorities.