Evaluation of LARS-WG Model’s Performance in Prediction of Precipitation in Karkheh Catchment Area

The present research aims to study the trend of precipitation changes of Karkheh Catchment Area in 19 next years via using 6 synoptic stations (Eslam Abad Gharb, Bostan, Khorram Abad, Ravansar, Kangavar, and Malayer). At first, climate data of the basic period from 1998 to 2016 was provided daily. Then, output data of IPCM4 Atmosphere General Circulation Model was become microscale with 3 scenarios of climate change of A1B, A2, and B1 through LARS-WG Model in Karkheh Catchment Area. Obtained results of precipitation changes were evaluated and analyzed in 6 synoptic stations of Karkheh Catchment Area in basic period of 1998-2016 and next period of 2017-2035. Studying of error rate of observation and simulated data was conducted in evaluation of LARS-WG Model and the proper model was evaluated. Obtained results of studying precipitation average represents that the precipitation amount of the next 19 years will increase compared to the 19 previous years based on each of three scenarios of A1B, A2 and B1 in stations of Eslam Abad Gharb, Bostan, Ravansar and Malayer and A2 Scenario shows more increase in comparison to the other scenarios. Indeed, precipitation amount of the next period will decrease compared to the previous period in Kangavar Station, according to each of three scenarios of A1B, A2, and B1.