Estimation of the net reproductive number of COVID-19 in Iran

Estimating the net reproductive number of COVID-19 virus can reveal the rate and severity of the disease transmission in the Iranian society to health researchers and practitioners. Also, it signifies the importance of the disease to the community. Thus, the aim of this study was to determine the net reproductive number of COVID-19 in Iran and its different provinces.

This study was conducted on the data of COVID-19 patients in Iran from February 21 to March 8, 2020. To determine the net reproductive number of COVID-19 in Iran, the serial interval and β value were first determined using linear regression analysis. Then, the net reproductive number values were calculated for Iran and its different provinces

The results of this study showed that the net reproductive number of COVID-19 in Iran was 1.31. Using the available data up to March 15, 2020, the highest net reproductive number was in Mazandaran, Yazd, Isfahan, Qazvin, and Zanjan provinces, with values of 2.07, 1.86, 1.84, and 1.76, respectively. The net reproductive number also showed an increasing trend in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province.

It seems that although the net reproductive number of the virus had a decreasing trend in the provinces, it is still high. Therefore, sanitary measures in these provinces should be pursued more seriously. On the other hand, social distancing is a topic that should be taken into consideration, that is, social gatherings and contacts should be avoided as much as possible and strategies and facilities for this action should be developed by the government and health policymakers.