Analysis of the Most Important Factors Affecting the Failure of New Cities in Iran with the Foresight Approach (Case Study: Sadra New Town)

The purpose of this study was to investigate and analyze the most important factors affecting the failure of new cities in Iran with emphasis on the Sadra City and with a foresight approach.

The type of research is based on the purpose of applying a combination of documentary and survey methods in the exploration and based on a Foresight approach and scenario that has been implemented using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. The method of data collection is library and field studies. Structural analysis, scenario analysis and Delphi technique have been used in this research. The software used in this study is the Scenario Wizard and Mic Mac software.

Based on structural analysis results, among the 22 indicators studied, 10 indicators were selected as the most important indicators affecting the failure of new cities in Iran.Among the 10 key indicators affecting the system, four indicators are from the group of technical-engineering variables, three indicators from the group of social variables, two indicators from the group of managerial variables and one index from the group of economic variables, the results show a significant difference between technical-engineering variables. And it has a social with two other variables.

The final results also identified three scenario groups including scenarios with favorable conditions, based on competitiveness and program orientation, maintaining the status quo and critical and unfavorable conditions in improving the situation of new towns.