Spatial analysis and forecasting of driving accidents at the level of urban road network

Due to the daily increasing number of private cars and consequently increase in traffic problems, especially traffic accidents and the imposing exorbitant human and financial costs on urban communities, is very important to identify traffic accidental points and areas in order to carry out practical plans to reduce and or minimizing the rate of traffic accidents and improving the safety level of the urban transportation system, and in the same way, not accurately predicting high-risk points and not paying attention to the underlying indicators of the accident, can increase cost of construction sector and the country's management day by day.

Therefore, the present study, which is practical in method of descriptivedocumentary and nature, has been written with the aim of identifying the effective components in the occurrence of traffic accidents in Ardabil city and modeling and predicting the occurrence of traffic accidents. the library method has been used in order to collect statistics and information required for research, and ARCGIS 10.4 and Geoda software have been used in order to analyze spatial data.

The results of the studies conducted in the present study indicate the existence of a cluster pattern in the spatial distribution of traffic accidents in Ardabil. These accidents are geographically distributed in the northwest-southeast direction to the center of gravity of central core of Ardabil city. so that the main centers of occurrence of accidents are located in this area. In fact, it can be said that the main centers of traffic accidents in Ardabil city were mostly corresponding to the geographical location of Imam Hossein Square (Tazeh Square), part of Imam Khomeini Street (between Fajr Square (Bazaar) to the Gandarmery intersection), Ghiam Square, Mobarezan Square and the distance between these intersections, the first Bani-Hashem Highway (Moghan Road), Darupakhsh Street, Madar Square, the distance between Mobarezan Square (Meshgin Gate) to Saadi Square (Shohada Highway), the distance between Isar Square And Besat Square, Tohid Square, distance between Mojez and Molayosef and Hakim Nezami Square. In fact, the mentioned intersections and passages are considered as hot spots of traffic accidents and in other words, the highest number of occurrence of accidents compared to the adjacent areas has been observed in these places.

The results obtained from measuring the spatial autocorrelation of research variables with the incidence of traffic accidents indicate that a positive and significant spatial correlation is established between the variables of bus stations density, density of spaces with organic texture, density of adsorbent land uses, population density, access road density and speed of vehicles traffic in road network of Ardebil city and the rate of occurrence of traffic accidents in this city, and There is a significant and negative spatial correlation between the variables of personal car ownership coefficient, distance from the main intersections of the city and the volume of vehicle traffic with the incidence of traffic accidents. Also, the results obtained from the GWR model indicate the high capability of the independent variables used in the research, in explaining the rate of changes in the occurrence of traffic accidents in the network of roads and urban areas of Ardabil.