Economic Impacts of Date Palm Breeding Research under Risk on Development

Sustainable investment in research and development programs necessitates documentary evidences about their benefits. Accordingly, this study aimed at estimating the potential economic benefits of date palm breeding researches as an important source of productivity enhancement at risk conditions. It was conducted in a pre-run economic surplus method based on the possibility of shifting the supply curve through introduction of high-yielding and compatible cultivars. With direct relationship between the relative displacement of the supply curve and increase in the risk parameter of yield changes, Monte Carlo simulation and the Latin Hypercube sampling method were used to estimate the potential benefits of breeding research impact in six provinces of Iran. Considering the risky nature of the variables, the range of changes in all evaluated indicators was determined. With respect to the positive results of the net present value of the economic benefits and the transfer of the supply curve to the right and the positive effect on total productivity, the effect of technical progress resulted from breeding research programs was confirmed. The internal rate of return was greater than the minimum rate of return on investment and the efficiency index was estimated in the range of 51.6 to 91 IR rials. The results of risk management analysis based on PMBOK standard confirmed the proper stability of the results which in turn emphasized the acceptable return on investment in date palm breeding research programs. Therefore, it was suggested that more supportive policies should be adopted in the field of date palm breeding research.‎