Earthquake Damage Estimation using Radius Model in GIS Environment (Case Study: Sari City, Mazandaran Province)

The geographical distribution of earthquakes shows that almost the entire territory of Iran is at risk of earthquakes and is potentially unsafe. In the last 40 years, a number of devastating earthquakes have occurred in eastern, western, northern and southern Iran. The city of Sari is three and half kilometers away from this fault and 37.5 km away from the Alborz fault. Considering the existence of seismic faults in Mazandaran province, which can endanger the city of Sari, assessing its vulnerability using an appropriate model is necessary and unavoidable. The aim of this study was to evaluate the radius model to estimate the damage caused by earthquake in Sari. Two scenarios were considered with respect to the two faults of Khazar and northern Alborz to estimate the damage caused by a possible earthquake in the study area. Data analysis was performed according to database-based methods using the Radius model and software based on the geographic information system approach. The results showed that according to the Khazar fault scenario, 18910 buildings will be demolished, 2382 people will be killed, and 22897 people will be injured. According to the Alborz fault scenario, 3086 buildings will be demolished, 15 people will be killed and 2102 people will be injured. Due to the short distance between the Khazar fault and the study area, this fault causes the most damage to the region. The results of this study provide useful information for decision making in the city's seismic risk reduction plan.