Estimating the Lifetime and Age-Conditional Risk of an HIV Diagnosis in Iran, 2011-2015

According to the importance of infectious diseases, especially HIV, the purpose of this study was to estimate lifetime and age-conditional risks of HIV diagnosis in Iran.

We used vital statistics, HIV surveillance and census data for 2011-2015 to calculate Age-specific HIV diagnosis and non-HIV death rates. These rates then converted to the probability of an HIV diagnosis considering the competing risk. Finally, the probabilities were applied to a hypothetical cohort of 10 million live births. The lifetime and age-conditional risk of HIV diagnosis in the total and general population of Iran were calculated by Dev Can software (version 6.7.4).

Lifetime risk was 0.084% (95% CI: 0.081-0.088) or one in 1183 for females and 0.21% (95% CI: 0.201- 0.211) or one in 483 for males in the total population. In the general population lifetime risk for men was 0.069% (95% CI: 0.066-0.072) or 1 in 1454 men and 0.066% (95%CI: 0.063-0.069) or one in 1523 for women. In the total and general population, the 10-yr age-conditional risk of HIV diagnosis showed that the highest risk of an HIV diagnosis is related to 30-yr -olds.

The estimated risks differed based on gender, age, and type of population. Paying close attention to these differences is critical for infection control planning and policies.