Determining Optimal Cropping Pattern for Adaptation of Water Scarcity under Uncertainty using Robust Goal Programming Approach

Changing the cropping pattern due to the climate change and drought persistence is one of the key approaches for agricultural policy makers for adaptation of water scarcity. Also, implementation of changing the cropping pattern in Sarab County is felt as one of the major points of agricultural production in East Azerbaijan province. Since the uncertainty is one of the unavoidable aspects in agricultural planning and decision making, this study introduces and applies the robust goal programming (RGP) model as a tool for optimization of cropping pattern under uncertainty. The required data and information for this study were collected through Sarab County Agriculture Organization and completing the questionnaire in the period of 2017-2018. In addition to the RGP approach, the LP and GP models were solved to determine the optimal cropping pattern. The results showed RGP model in terms of achieving the goals of maximize profit and minimize water consumption was superior to other models, which indicated that the current status of the water operation in the studied area was not optimal. Implementation of optimal cropping pattern based on RGP model would increase profited and employment by 1.7 and 1.32 percent, respectively and it also could reduce water consumption, fertilizer and chemical pesticides consumptions by 7.7, 12.3 and 12 percent, respectively relative to the current cropping pattern. Among the studied crops, wheat had the highest increase regarding cultivated area. Therefore, wheat is an important crop in the region and it should be cultivated as a strategic crop in greater volume.