The Comparison of the Actual and Potential Tourism Flow Using the Gravity ModelCase Study: Iran, the Commonwealth Countries and the Caucasus

The international tourism flow that indicates the displacement of nationalities to the other countries, can be examined from both actual and potential dimensions. These two flows may or may not coincide. In the latter case, we face the phenomenon of “tourism flow gap”. This study compares the actual and potential tourism flows between Iran, The Commonwealth countries and The Caucasus, and has been carried out using a gravity model and assessing the tourism flow gap between these countries. For data analysis, multiple linear regression and SPSS software were applied. In this study, six independent variables include: the origin population, the destination population, the distance between the origin and the destination, the origin income per capita, the destination income per capita, and the number of world heritage sites at destination. Statistical assessments showed that among all these variables, the three variables: the number of world heritage sites at destination, the distance between the origin and the destination, and the origin population had a significant effect on the bilateral tourism flows between Iran, The Commonwealth countries and The Caucasus. These variables can account for 42% of the tourism flow changes among countries.