DEVELOPMENT OF A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FRAMEWORK AND PROJECT RISK ASSESSMENT WITH A COMBINED MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION-MAKING AND SIMULATION APPROACH

Today, risk management in various fields has been considered by managers.The interactions of risks have created complexities in the selection of risk response actions. In order to risk reduction, selecting of the suitable actions can be an effective decision-making tool in risk management.Therefore, to achieve this goal, in this paper, we develop a decision support framework considering the risk identification and assessment with a hybrid approach of simulation and Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision-Making in the dams of Shahid Hasheminejad Gas Refinery. This framework can be used as a proposed plan for DSS designer in the field of risk management decision making. This paper has performed qualitative risk assessment first by fuzzy Failure Modes and Effects Analysis method and then by combining fuzzy DEMATEL method and developed fuzzy hierarchical analysis, so that the interactions and intensity of dependencies are calculated and Monte Carlo simulations has been used for quantitative assessment considering the relationship between risks. The evaluation of nine identified risk with simulation shows that the risk of closing the overflow pipe, which was ranked fourth in the qualitative analysis, has the highest rank.