Examining decadal changes in cyclones associated with precipitation in the Zard Rud basin

Cyclones constitute one of the major factors determining climatic conditions, especially precipitation in the middle latitudes. Changes in the properties of cyclones in a region may lead to variations in the precipitation conditions of that region. Therefore, studying major aspects in cyclones can clarify variations in precipitation conditions. In this research, changes of cyclones associated with precipitation in the Zard Rud basin (a Sub-basin of Jarahi basin in khozestan) has been reviewed decadal during a period ranging from the hydrological year of 1976-1997 to 2013-2014. In this research, daily precipitation maps during the studied period (13879 days) by using kriging method has been provided.

So the long-term precipitation mean of all days were extracted and by using 50 percentile, rainfall season detected. Upon identifying the precipitation season, Cyclones detected for this period. For identifying cyclones 1000 hPa hourly maps (NCEP/NCAR) were utilized. Two conditions were used to detect available cyclones: (1) the height values in each pixel of the 1000 hPa height map should be smaller than those of it 8 neighboring pixels and (2) the gradient mean of the height of the selected pixel and its 8 neighboring ones that was equal or smaller than 100 m/1000 km was regarded as the cyclone center. After identifying the cyclones on the map, the center of each cyclone was identified in consecutive maps to track the cyclone path. It was hypothesized that precipitation in the basin of the Zard Rud would be affected by the cyclones dominating the area as well as the trough of the cyclones that were far from the area, but could influence the region.

Cyclones associated with precipitation in the basin were identified in the light of the presence of the cyclone or its troughs over the region during the occurrence of a precipitation. The results show that The extent of the area and frequency of cyclones in studied decades and consequently frequency of cyclonic rainy days and annual cyclonic precipitation in Zard Rud basin have decreased. Reduction in the frequency of cyclonic precipitations can be attributed to the place where the cyclones are formed. Indeed, in comparison with the past, a larger number of cyclones are formed over Saudi Arabia and Iraq, a phenomenon which has led to the entrance of dry or less humid air into the studied region. Masoudian (2012: 15-33) also indicated that a cyclonic center was formed over Iraq.

Longitudinal extent area of cyclones decreases from 72.5˚ in first decade to 55˚ in fourth decade and Latitudinal extent decreases from 30˚ in first decade to 25˚ in fourth decade. Annual review on cyclones entry point to Iran show that minimum latitudinal extent from 1986-1987 hydrological year and maximum latitudinal extent from 1991-1992 hydrological year had fluctuation. So that, in 2011-2012 hydrological year, latitudinal extent of cyclones entry to Iran has reached the narrowest of its paths. Examining mean differences in the cyclone frequency of two halves of period (first half: 1976-1977 to 1994-1995 hydrological year and second half: 1995-1996 to 2013-2014 hydrological year) also revealed a noticeable shift in cyclones frequency. Result of surveying of cyclonic precipitation show that cyclonic total precipitation decreased during the studied decades. However, frequency of cyclones is less than first decade but second decade has the maximum amount of precipitation. It is may resulted of continuity of cyclones in this region. Taken together, a change was observed in geographical extent and frequency of cyclones associated with precipitation in the Zard Rud basin, which in turn affected precipitation in the area