Future studies Mutation of Iranian and American scientific products based a scientometric study: A Brief report

The purpose of this study is to investigate the future of the share of Iranian and American scientific products in the total scientific production of the world.

The present study was performed by scientometric method. The source of the data search is Wos, Scopus databases. The period is from 1995 to 2020. Linear and logarithmic linear functions and regression coefficients were used to predict time.

Iran's share of world scientific production, in 1995 in WOS and Scopus, respectively, is 00.4% and 00.5%, and in 2020 in both bases is 2.2, the average growth rate is 215%; The US share in Wos and Scopus in 1995 is 35.2% and 30.8%, respectively, and in 2020 in WOS and Scopus is 24.4% and 20.4%, respectively.

The share of Iranian and American scientific production is converging over time, the share of the United States is declining and Iran is increasing. And this convergence is due to the sharp decline in US scientific production Than the rapid growth of Iranian production. As this trend continues, the share of the two countries in Scopus in 2058 and WOS in 2061 will be equal.