Clinical Characteristics and Early Prognostic Factors of Severe Acute Pancreatitis

 To analyze the clinical characteristics of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) patients retrospectively and explore the effective factors in death from severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).

 The required data were collected from 234 SAP patients admitted to our department from January 2013 to December 2020 and then analyzed retrospectively. According to the prognosis, all patients were admitted within 72 hours of onset and were assigned to the death and survival groups. The participants’ clinical and demographic information, laboratory indices when patients were brought to the intensive care unit (ICU), and organ failure were analyzed using univariate and logistic multivariate regression. The logistic regression (LR) model was developed and evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

 In this study, the total mortality rate was 11.96% (95% CI, 8.1 - 16.8%). The univariate analysis revealed a significant relationship between SAP-related death with age, ICU admission within 24 hours of onset, APACHE II score, serum amylase, serum albumin, PaO2, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), renal insufficiency, and other diseases (P < 0.05). The multivariate logistic regression analysis further demonstrated that ICU admission within 24 hours of onset, serum albumin, ARDS, and renal insufficiency were independent early prognostic factors of SAP (P < 0.05). LR model: Y = -0.108 - 1.852 × ICU admission within 24 hours of onset -0.102 × serum albumin + 1.790 × ARDS + 1.150 × renal insufficiency. The area under the curve (AUC) and 95% CI of the LR model were 0.864 (0.811 - 0.917) with the optimal threshold of 2.246. The sensitivity and specificity were 0.709 and 0.929, respectively.

 The SAP patients or acute pancreatitis (AP) patients at risk of developing SAP should be transferred to ICU at the earliest convenience. Moreover, hypoalbuminemia, ARDS, and renal insufficiency indicate poor prognosis.