Application of GIS in Predicting Rail Network Capacity through Linear Regression

The rail transport system consists of the interaction of a set of equipment and operations that determine the capability and capacity of a rail system in freight and passenger transport. For this purpose, it is important to calculate the capacity and predict how it will change, and knowing it will be of great help in improving the level of operation of the railway network. There are several methods for calculating capacity that can be used depending on the type of network and how it is used. To calculate the capacity, the capabilities of spatial information systems are used and with the help of a web-based spatial information system, the operational capacity of the rail network is determined in a new way and with more efficiency than conventional methods. For this purpose, a GIS-based environment that is connected to various databases of the Railway Company of the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the travel database, is used and while observing the current capacity of the network, through multivariate linear regression, the capacity of the rail network in It determines the future. The present study, through linear regression, predicts railway capacity in a case study in Iran for the three selected routes and identifies important blocks for investigating the effect of spatial parameters in determining the capacity of the railway network. Slowly Based on the available data of 1996 (extracted from the Railway Spatial Web Service), capacity forecasting was performed in 1997 in the GIS environment. The results showed that the capacity utilization of the selected routes for freight trains was 82%, passenger routes 56%, 62% return and 79% combined routes. Also, the accuracy of model prediction for freight trains is 35% better than passenger trains, which is due to the difference in speed change and maximum speed allowed for these two types of trains, and modeling accuracy is directly related to the type of part. Route (passenger, freight and combined), so in the passenger route, the modeling capacity of passenger trains was approximately 45% more accurate. Similarly, on the freight route, the estimation of the capacity of freight trains was associated with approximately 45% higher accuracy than that of passenger trains.