Dynamic Analysis of Sustainable Water Resources Management Based on Water-Food-Energy Nexus Case Study: Khuzestan Province

The present study dynamically analyzes the policies of sustainable water resources management based on the security of water, food and energy resources of Nexus with respect to changes in demand resulting from population growth and economic growth over a 20-year horizon using the system dynamics approach. The initial modeling and simulation of the model was performed based on the data of Khuzestan Plain as a large structural unit of water-food-energy resources and according to the continuation of the current situation. Based on the results of Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis, the model develops water resources sustainability policy in the form of four policy categories including: water demand management, water supply management, food resource management and energy demand management, as well as combining policies in an ideal system. As a result of simulating the proposed solutions, a combination of water demand management policy and food resource management was selected as the best solution. So that with the development of lands covered by pressurized irrigation network, 16% improvement of irrigation efficiency and 10% modification of cultivation pattern and also 6% reduction of agricultural crop losses in food supply management and also 5% reduction of food demand due to food losses An annual increase of 5% improves crop performance as a selection of sustainable water resources management policies.