Simulation and prediction of urban growth and expansion using remote sensing technique (Case Study: Torbat-e Jam, 2000-2019)

Urbanization is one of the consequences of the industrial revolution, which changed the development process and led to the expansion of migration to the city. One of the main results of the expansion of urbanization in recent decades is land use change in cities and their uneven growth, which has made managing urban growth one of the most important challenges of the 21st century. The present study evaluated the changes in the lands of Torbat-e Jam city during the years 2000 to 2019 and then predicts these changes until 1420 AH. The research method is descriptive-analytical. Landsat images, sensors, ETMs of 2000 and 2010 and OLI sensors of 2019 have been used to collect data in this study. After classifying the images, in order to find out the changes in the land use of Torbat-e Jam city and to predict the changes until 1420, the Markov and CA chain model has been used. The results obtained in the period of 2000, 2010 and 2019 show that the area of ​​all land uses in the study area except barren land use has been increasing. Also, the forecast of the four floors of land cover, including urban lands, agriculture, barren and green space and gardens in the city of Tor bat-e Jam on the horizon of 1404, shows that the land use of the city will increase at the horizon of 1420, so that this land use will change by 192.13%. Agricultural land use will have a decreasing trend with 71.05% and green space and gardens with 53.32% and barren land use area will have an increasing trend change with 100.87%. Finally, with the Vision Development Index, the type of urban growth was determined. Also, according to this index, the growth type of Tor bat-e Jam city is of the edge type.