Selection of The Best EOR Method under Uncertainty with Probabilistic Response Surface Model and Quantitative Decision Criteria for One of IranꞌS Giant Heterogeneous Reservoir

Uncertainty in the upstream oil sector, especially in the early stages of field development, is high due to the lack of reservoir data and the multiplicity of uncertain parameters. Therefore, the calculation of quantities such as oil in place, recovery factor, and the net present value of production scenarios require uncertainty analysis. In this paper, response surface methodology and Monte Carlo simulation were used to analyze the uncertainties in a giant heterogeneous undeveloped oil reservoir and its effect on the selection of the Best EOR scenario was investigated. Then, the application of loss function, expected value, and semi-standard deviation and the best scenario under uncertainty were investigated considering uncertainty. The results show that parameters such as permeability, transmissibility multiplier, water-oil contact, and net to gross have the greatest impact on oil production from the reservoir. Also, after uncertainty analysis, different loss functions affect the best estimate of each production scenarios. The total utility function also is a good way to rank production scenarios and decide to choose the best scenario under uncertainty.