Modeling and Predicting Climatic Elements of Temperature and Precipitation (Case Study: Ahar Synoptic Station)

Today, climate change is considered a serious challenge to human societies and the environment and has caused anomalies in the Earth's climate system. According to scientists, an increase in the average global temperature is inevitable. In this study, the climatic elements of temperature and precipitation of Ahar synoptic station for the near future (2026-2045), middle future (2046-2065) and distant future (2066-2085) using the outputs of the CanESM2 climate change model. Based on RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with SDSM exponential microscale model and also the annual trend of these changes was investigated using Mann-Kendall test. Based on the output of the model, it was determined that in the near future, precipitation will occur in February and November, and in the next two periods, mid and distant, in October, the greatest decrease will occur, and for April, May and August, the precipitation will increase. On average, the minimum temperature will increase to 0.38 degrees Celsius, the average temperature to 0.52 degrees Celsius and the maximum temperature to 0.82 degrees Celsius. Based on the results of Mann-Kendall test, the annual trend of precipitation in the future will be decreasing, the average temperature in the three scenarios will have an increasing and significant trend and the temperature elements (minimum, medium and maximum temperature) in RCP8.5 will be increasing and significant.