Modeling of Sustainable Industrial Development in Aras Free Zone: system dynamics approach

Investigating dynamic relationships among effective variables for sustainable industrial development can help to understand the industrial ecosystem's behavioral responses to development policies. The purpose of this study is to develop a system dynamics model for sustainable development and development policy evaluation model in Aras free zone. In this paper, system dynamics modeling framework has been used to understand the interactions among social, economic, and environmental components. In the next step, the robustness of the model is examined using time series data between 2008 and 2018. Thereafter, sensitivity analysis has been conducted to evaluate the influence of the possible changes in the key drivers through simulation technique on policy efficiency in Aras economic region. The simulation results show that the development in the manufacturing industry based on the advice from the "Development in Aras economic zone" Scheme has led to the situation where the carrying capacity has been failed, hence the sustainability goals are unattainable. the results show that the service section has the least destructionto the environment. Developing industrial development strategies by considering its environmental and social dimensions and directing investments to the service sector can be considered as solutions to achieve the goals of sustainable development of the Aras Free Zone.