Vulnerability Assessment of The Northern Coasts of The Persian Gulf to Oil Spills

The occurrence of oil spills in the seas and oceans causes many short-term and long-term damages to the coasts and marine ecosystems. Therefore, in order to reduce the damage, comprehensive coastal vulnerability maps can be provided to coastal management decision-makers as well as the emergency response team as a powerful tool. In the present study, by combining the mathematical model of oil slick routing and ArcGIS software, the northern coasts of the Persian Gulf were evaluated based on exposure to oil pollution. For this purpose, 20 hypothetical fall scenarios with oil type and time of random occurrence in summer and winter were designed. Then, using GNOME Lagrangian software, the path of the oil slick and its arrival time to the shores were simulated, and based on that, the matrix of exposure of each coastal area to pollution was formed. Finally, the northern shores of the Gulf were classified into five levels of vulnerability. The results showed that in summer Assaluyeh and Bushehr ports with a cumulative probability of 120 and 94%, respectively, and in winter Assaluyeh port with a cumulative probability of 119% in all scenarios were in a very high vulnerability. In addition, the ports of Bushehr and Assaluyeh had the highest potential for damage to the region. According to the results of this study, coastal vulnerability is significantly affected by seasonal changes in climatic conditions and flow conditions.