The feasibility of Utilizing Lignocellulosic Wastes for the Bioethanol Production In Iran:Application of ARIMA Time Series Model

The first step in feasibility study of any national mega projects in energy sector is the investigation on the production potential and evaluate the market demand for the product. The success rate of a biofuel project after forecasting supply and demand depends on choosing the appropriate place to produce. In this respect, factors such as the selection of appropriate production site, environmental, technical, economic and social are among major issues. In this study, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used for the prediction of bioethanol demand in five sceneries; E5, E10, E15, E20 and E30. The time period up to 1412 is foreseen. The data on agricultural wastes and the present and future potentials for the bioethanol production in different provinces is analyzed. The results indicate that, the average daily consumption of gasoline will increase to 136,922 million liters per day as we reach 1412.The study also shows that there exists the potential for the production of 18.16 million liters of bioethanol which can fulfill the requirement of E5 and E10 by 1412. If we want to implement the E20 and E30 scenario in the country, it is necessary to increase the production of 7 selected products in this research, in the provinces of Khuzestan, Fars, Khorasan Razavi, Golestan, Isfahan, Mazandaran, Tehran, Qazvin and Alborz and Gilan by 62.2 million tons per year by 1412, And consider the effective factor in the success of the project, namely the support of the government and legislators for national mega projects.