Assessment of Climate Change Effects on River Flow of Gelevard Dam Basin

Climate change is one of the most important issues that have affected various parts of human life in recent decades. Undoubtedly, this phenomenon will change the water resources of each basin. Therefore, estimating and predicting the future of river discharge is of great importance due to its harmful effects on the environment, economy and society. This research is aimed at checking and predicting the discharge of the river Gelevard Dam under different climatic conditions.

To this end, the HadGEM2-EM model was used under three scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Also, the IHACRES model was used to simulate surface flow for the intended periods.

The results of the annual changes in the meteorological parameters under the RCP 2.6 climate change scenario showed that the maximum increase in minimum and maximum temperatures would occur during the period 2061-2080. The greatest change in precipitation will occur during the period 2021-2040. Regarding the results of modeling using IHACRES, it was found that the correlation coefficient of the model in the calibration stage is 0.61 and in the verification stage it is 0.79. The results showed that the average river flow rate decreased by 4, 8.7, 13 and 5 percent, respectively, in the four study periods (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100).

Due to the declining trend of Neka River discharge in the coming decades, the projected targets for the Gelevard Dam for drinking water, agriculture, industry, etc. will face significant shortages.