Identification and Prioritization of Factors Affecting Water Scarcity in Kermanshah Province with Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

Identifying the effective and determining factors of water scarcity in each region is a necessary condition for proper management of water supply and demand and laying the groundwork for adaptation to water scarcity. Although Kermanshah province is not in a crisis situation according to the usual indicators for determining the water crisis, the continuation of the current situation will lead to a crisis and requires a review of the province's water resources management approaches. This research seeks to identify and prioritize the determinants of water scarcity in Kermanshah province in the theoretical framework of institutionalism and with the hierarchical analysis process. For this purpose, with the Delphi method and hierarchical analysis tool, and EXPERT CHOICE software, these factors were identified and prioritized. The results show that contrary to conventional approaches to water resources management, which emphasizes water supply management, the role of demand-side factors in the problem of water shortage in Kermanshah province is much more decisive so that 72.5% of the water shortage problem is explained by these factors.  Demand-side factors, respectively, priority and share in water scarcity are: low water productivity in the agricultural sector (0.42), uncontrolled extraction of underground resources (0.21), agricultural production structure (0.13), virtual water exports (0.10), water loss in the route (0.06), water consumption culture (0.05), lack of meter (0.03). On the supply-side, the amount of precipitation (0.38), water budget (0.18), evaporation (0.18), time mismatch between precipitation and consumption (0.13), type of precipitation (0.05), precipitation fluctuation (0.05), and insufficient utilization of gray water (0.03) have the most important role in creating stress, respectively.