Effect of Information Ensemble on Electricity Load Forecasting by Proposing a Novel Hierarchical Forecasting Method
To forecast the electricity load of a city or country and facilitate the strategic decision-making, it is common to collect the historical data from different zones of the city or different cities of the country. However, normally all the zones or different sectors’ load (residential, industrial, and commercial) are not important equally. In other words, a certain zone or a sector may have the most effect on decision making. Therefore, the simple algebraic sum of the different zones’ forecasting may not be meaningful for the ultimate objective. There are different methods for aggregation of the different zones’ forecasts. The most convenient method is the simple algebraic sum of the different zones’ forecasts, which is not only inefficient but also needs more details about the effective factors on the electricity demand in each zone. In this paper, different aggregation approaches such as bottom-up, top-down, optimal combination methods are presented. It should be mentioned that any research paper in the field of the electrical power system and load forecasting have not studied the hierarchical forecasting; therefore, presenting the hierarchical method for load forecasting is a strict innovation of this paper. The Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing methods are embedded in proposed aggregation approaches. The proposed methods are applied to forecast Australian electric load in short-term and long-term horizons.
-
A Novel Meter Placement Algorithm Based on Monte Carlo Coupled State Estimation and Iterative Nonlinear Mesh Adaptive Direct Search
Farkhondeh Jabari *, , Mehdi Zeraati
Journal of Operation and Automation in Power Engineering, Autumn 2025 -
Profitability Analysis of Coalition of Virtual Power Plants and Load Aggregators in Active Distribution Networks
, Mohammad, Kazem Sheikh, El, Eslami , Mahmoud, Reza Haghifam
Journal of Iranian Association of Electrical and Electronics Engineers,