Investigating the effect of travel time reliability on the model of mode choice between rail and road in freight transport

One of the most important factors influencing mode choice in freight transport between rail and road is travel time reliability, which has been researched in the world more around the stated preferences [SP] data also to the best knowledge of the authors there is no research formed with revealed preferences data in Iran.  The present study intends to conduct this research using the data of the revealed preferences of the registered bill of lading of rail and road and the travel time of freight trains and in terms of various variables of reliability. In this article, the choice of mode between rail and road for 10 groups of goods is examined. Initially, the various variables of reliability that were previously introduced in the sources related to freight and passenger transport, in addition to the new variables of this study were made based on the travel time information. In most groups of goods, the variable of shipments ratio in the range of 10% of the average travel time was more significant. One of the outstanding results of this research is that the group of containerized goods and foodstuffs are the most sensitive to reliability, respectively, and on time delivery of shipments can play an effective role in attracting these loads from the road. The group of mineral goods is less sensitive to the reliability of travel time, and in this group, variables such as cost play a more important role in the choice of transport mode.