Development of a human error risk assessment model in high priority emergency situation using TOPSIS, FUZZY-AHP and CREAM method

Emergencies are unforeseen and unpredictable situations. In these situations, people’s performance is affected by various factors that cause stress. People’s performance in such situations can also affect human error probability. The purpose of this study was to evaluate human error in emergency situations based on the fuzzy CREAM and Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP).

This descriptive-analytical study was performed in a petrochemical industry in Markazi province in 2019. The FAHP was used to prioritize emergency situations. To evaluate human error in these conditions, the weights of Common Performance Conditions (CPC) was determined using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. Human error probability was calculated using a fuzzy CREAM method in the most important emergency situations.

The results of the FAHP showed that “Hydrogen leak from the cylinder joints in the olefin unit” was the most important emergency. The highest relative weight was related to crew collaboration quality (0.06) in the emergency situation.

This method can also be used to identify the important factors in human error occurrence and high weighted CPCs and plan to control them.