Probabilistic analysis of the stability of a dam using the Monte Carlo simulation method based on the limit equilibrium method

Probabilistic slope stability analysis provides a tool for considering uncertainty of the soil parameters in design. In this paper, using Slide software, the Monte Carlo simulation is used as an analytical method to develop probabilistic models of slope stability based on equilibrium methods. The limit equilibrium methods are the most popular approaches in slope stability analysis. These methods are well known to be a statically indeterminate problem, and assumptions on the inter-slice shear forces are required to render the problem statically determinate. In modeling using this methodology, the selected stochastic parameters are internal friction angle, cohesion and unit weight of soil, which are modeled using a truncated normal probability density function (pdf). In this research, the abilities offered using models were presented by using field data obtained from Cannon dam in Iran. The results obtained show that the hybrid Monte Carlo simulation and equilibrium methods can be used successfully for slopes stability assessment.