Future scenarios of the effects of the spatial and functional structure of Iran's metropolitan areas on the growth and prevalence of infectious diseases and COVID-19 (case study; Ahvaz metropolis)

Future scenarios of the effects of the spatial and functional structure of Iran's metropolitan areas on the growth and prevalence of infectious diseases and COVID-19 (case study; Ahvaz metropolis)IntroductionThe health of individuals and populations is affected by the environment in which they live. Some environments harbour more pathogens than others and population densities vary across environment, which influences disease transmission dynamics. Moreover, variation in resource distribution across environments can determine movement patterns, which can expose individuals to new pathogens, but also contribute to their health by increasing activity. The built environment can be modified to promote healthy behaviours and reduce the risk of contracting a disease. The metropolis of Ahvaz, as the administrative-political center of Khuzestan province and the center of the southwestern region of the country with a population of 1.3 million people in 2016, has a special political and economic position so that this city is about One-fourth of the urban population of Khuzestan province. The population of the problematic areas of Ahvaz metropolitan area is about 340,000 people, which occupies approximately 4,500 hectares of the total area of the city (21%) . Existence of large industrial factories, administrative and industrial facilities, South Oilfields Company, National Iranian Drilling Company, Pipe Manufacturing, Carbon Black, Pipe Rolling, Axin Steel and Khuzestan Steel Ahvaz have become one of the most important industrial centers in Iran and this is why It has caused many immigrants to come to this city. For this reason, Ahvaz is facing an environmental pollution crisis, which has faced a significant and dangerous increase in pollution in the last decade, and in 2013, Ahvaz was named the most polluted city in the world in the international media. In this article, we will discuss the future effects of the environment on chronic and infectious diseases in Iran's metropolises by case study of Ahvaz metropolis. And our goal is to review the indicators in the form of structural analysis that pave the way for further, deeper studies of each of these different cases that are rooted in the fabric of the structure and function of Iranian metropolises and, of course, part of the heart of these elements and determinants. Quality and vitality of the urban environment and a factor to improve the quality of the urban environment and consequently the physical and mental endurance of citizens in the face of infectious diseases and Quaid 19, which has been invading the cities of the world and Iran for some time. We have placed many human and social. With the future research approach, we identify the key factors and drivers and the effects of these key factors on the structure and function of Ahvaz metropolis when faced with infectious diseases and scenario building in this field. Finally, the main question of the present study is that what are the key factors affecting the future of the effects of the structure and function of Iranian metropolises on the case study of Ahvaz metropolis when faced with epidemic diseases and the future?Matherials & MethodsThis research is in terms of the type of applied-theoretical research and in terms of the nature of descriptive-analytical research, and the method of data collection is also library and field. Also, in terms of nature, it is based on new methods of future science, research, analysis and exploration that have been done using quantitative and qualitative models. In exploratory designs, a measurement tool is usually developed through qualitative research. For this purpose, by collecting and analyzing qualitative data, the main aspects of the phenomenon under study are determined. These aspects are considered as the desired dimensions for compiling data collection tools. The data of this study were collected through interviews with experts and then ranked by Delphi method. The criteria for selecting experts were theoretical mastery, willingness and ability to participate in research and access, which is described in the table below of the specifications of the experts referred to..Discussion of ResultsTherefore, this study aims to assess the awareness and attitude of experts on the effect of effective factors on the structure and spatial function of Iranian metropolises on exacerbating or weakening the effects of infectious diseases using structural analysis. In the framework of futuristic studies and using the scenario approach, while measuring the general situation of the structure and function of Ahvaz metropolis, its stability or instability pattern can also be seen from the spatial distribution of variables at the level of charts and outputs of Mic software. Mac received. Also, the almost high percentage of filling coefficient (83%) in the research variables confirms the validity and reliability of the research tools at an almost high level. For this purpose, the present study, while measuring the direct effects of variables, has also considered the dimensions of the impact and indirect and potential competence of variables in the spatial arrangement of variables and the development of key propulsion forces and final scenarios.Also, the analysis of the obtained information confirmed that the indicators of urban structure and function are unstable in the fight against infectious diseases in Ahvaz, so that the continuation of the current situation will lead to the formation of a catastrophic scenario, and in the best case, If the current situation continues, the key features of the metropolitan structure and function of this metropolis will intensify social harms, weaken social capital and consequently weak social trust, social participation, inability to adapt to harms ... will.Conclusions worn-out urban fabric, population density, lack of income, migration, urban management weakness, were identified as key factors in the structure and function of metropolitan environment in the spread of infectious diseases and barriers to healthy living in Ahvaz metropolis. All of these factors have negative health consequences for this population and may also prevent any intervention aimed at preventing and treating infectious diseases and covid 19. Increasing the level of communication and mobility of people in metropolitan areas will lead to a high risk of transmitting the disease. Therefore, the urban space and environment will be prone to the growth of infectious diseases, including Quaid 19, which includes all conditions, including inequality in access to urban services at the metropolitan level, distinct access to health services in urban areas, air pollution, poor public awareness, class distance. In this metropolis, there is a lack of facilities and infrastructure to increase the physical activity of citizens in this city, for the spread and spread of infectious diseases. Although urban poor areas are usually more affected, infections have the potential to spread rapidly to other parts of the city, including wealthy neighborhoods and tourist areas.The current situation of Ahvaz metropolis in the face of epidemic diseases will increase, as a result of which the situation in Ahvaz will become critical and will face crises, human, environmental, managerial, economic, social and institutional. . In this situation, the metropolis will face a fragile anomaly. And it becomes an inefficient metropolis in the face of sudden events and infectious diseases such as Quaid 19 disease. The emigration of a large number of people from the surrounding towns and villages to Ahvaz, on the one hand, and the lack of proper supervision over physical development, on the other, will lead to the development of the unbalanced expansion of Ahvaz and the formation of more marginalized areas and informal settlements throughout it. Urban inequalities and distinct access to urban services and health care have adverse effects on urban society. Unemployment and economic problems will lead to more social harm. The weakness of security will lead to the weakening of the mental and emotional endurance among the citizens. Infectious diseases disproportionately affect urban poverty. In addition, these diseases affect all areas of the metropolis regardless of the stages of economic development.