Development of business environment scenarios of the Islamic Republic of Iran with a strategic approach

The transition from the centrally planned and oil-based economy to the free market economy involves providing its foundations and improving the business environment, as a prerequisite and indeed the starting point for adoption of the required measures and implementation of reform policies in the economy.This applied study was conducted to identify the business environment scenarios in the Islamic Republic of Iran.To this aim, it provided a comprehensive analysis of the business environment in this country and tried to describe its future through the GBN scenario planning approach.Following a literature review, a total of 56 experts, agents and officials active in business were used as the statistical population.Data were collected using the desk-based research method, interviews and questionnaires, and with the help of focus groups.The data of the questionnaire, as the source for identifying the drivers, the key factors of change and uncertainties, were prioritized using quantitative methods.The results of the questionnaire based on the key uncertainties consisted of the following four scenarios: 1) The government’s reluctance to improve the business environment, accompanied by corruption and abuse of administrative positions in government agencies (when everyone was asleep), 2) Fighting and reducing corruption alongside the government’s reluctance to improve the business environment (quarantine), 3) The government's determination to improve the business environment despite corruption and abuse of administrative positions in government agencies (crossing the minefield), and 4) The government's determination to improve the business environment alongside a full-scale fight against corruption and abuse of administrative positions (the treasure castle).