The role of climatic migration in reducing crop productivity using GIS and IO method (Case study: Sistan and Baluchestan)

Agriculture is one of the most important sectors that are graetly affected by climate change.Reducing the level ofagriculture, reducing soil fertility, reducing water level, increasing animal mortality, reducing farmers’ income,increasing food and product prices, growth of unemployment, etc. One of its consequences is. Consideringthe location of Sistan and Baluchestan province in the driest region of the country and increasing drought, thisstudy aimed to investigate the role of climatic migration in reducing crop productivity by usingGIS and IOmethod in Sistan and Baluchestan province.-For this purpose, first, precipitation data (mm) of temperature and available water were studied in 1991-1400. The results show that rainfall, seasonal temperature and trend water rate decrease, increase and decreaserespectively, which has a significant effect on agricultural yield in the region.Then, by overlay method andstatistical analysis in GIS environment, by preparing slope maps, for elevation through overlapping layers,land shape map was prepared and then by overlapping the land shape layer, land use, soil and vegetationdistribution map of drought distribution in the region and information layers, the relationship between droughtand agricultural crops of agricultural lands of the region was prepared-. The results indicate that the area under cultivation of the studied crops (wheat, barley, corn, potatoes)has changed, which is a negative value compared to the base year. Considering the position of Sistan andBaluchestan province in the driest region of the country and increasing drought and desertification of thisregion, economic and social problems such as migration from these regions are among the most importanteffects of drought. At first, the study of data obtained from SPI index, precipitation data (mm) temperature andavailable water values, 1991-1400 indicates that rainfall, seasonal temperature and trend water are decreasing,increasing and decreasing, respectively, and drought is increasing. These changes have a significant effecton the yield of the studied crops (wheat, barley, corn, potatoes) in the region. . Then, by overlay methodand statistical analysis in GIS environment, drought distribution map in the region and information layers,investigation of the relationship between drought and agricultural crops, agricultural land status map of theregion were prepared. The results of statistical analysis indicate that the level of cultivation of the values ofthe studied products has changed, which is a negative value compared to the base year. According to theresults of this study, a considerable percentage of agricultural lands are no longer suitable for cultivation andanother percentage is in a sensitive and deteriorating situation. In Sistan and Baluchestan province, the rate ofdrought years is increasing, and increasing severe and acute droughts can affect agriculture and consequently,employment in related jobs and consequently, migration. Environmental problems such as drought in Sistanand Baluchestan province have also created problems for people’s lives that people have been forced togive up their homes and lives and migrate to other cities of the province. . These migrations certainly havedifferent effects and results such as increasing marginalization, increasing the price of housing and land inmigratory provinces, reducing the level of agriculture, reducing soil fertility, reducing water level, increasinganimal mortality, reducing farmers’ income, Increasing the price of food and products, lowering the quality ofagricultural products, creating problems and cultural encounters, unemployment, etc. Therefore, it is expectedthat to control the consequences of these migrations with strong planning and management to prevent anycrisis and problems in the country.