Analysis of Simulation Model of Publishing Behavior of Faculty Members by Using System Dynamics Method and Presenting the Best Scenarios: A Case Study of Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

Science production through the publication of articles in indexed journals is one of the most important outputs of higher education centers. Today, quantitative and qualitative evaluation of scientific articles is one of the usual methods of evaluating the research activities of universities. The managers of Ferdowsi University of Mashhad have always been concerned about the level of scientific production of their faculty members in order to maintain and improve the scientific status of the university. The publication of academic faculty members' articles in different years can be affected by various factors which identifying them can help the university managers in planning and policy-making in order to achieve the goal of increasing the growth of science production.

There are studies conducted about the influence of effective factors on the production of science, but most are qualitative and limited to the identification of the factors and have not focused on measuring the factors qualitatively.This research is based on a mixed-exploratory approach that seeks to discover the influencing factors in the number of publications of international scientific articles and the effective scenarios for its growth. This research has been done in two qualitative and quantitative phases. In the qualitative phase, using the Delphi method, which identified the key factors influencing the increase in the number of articles published, and in the quantitative phase, using the system dynamics method, which evaluated the impact of each factor and finally determined the best scenarios.

In the first phase of this research, some influential factors in the publication of articles by the faculty members of Ferdowsi University of Mashhad were identified by reviewing the sources and using the content analysis method. Then, using the Delphi method, the identified factors were available to experts, which included 20 faculty members in the five fields of pure sciences, engineering, agriculture and biological sciences, behavioral sciences, and humanities with the highest number of published articles. In the second phase conducted using the system dynamics method, the data related to the factors identified between 2005 and 2019 were collected, and after determining their logical relationships and drawing a causal-circular diagram, their dynamic diagram was used to examine the extent of their influence on each other was drawn.The results obtained from the review of sources and experts' opinions led to the identification of five key factors and variables, which are: increase in the recruitment of doctoral students, increase in the recruitment of master's students, increase in research projects, increase in sabbatical leaves and increase in a grant.In the second phase, after obtaining the dynamic diagram and data analysis in the simulation model, the initial results showed that the average article of each faculty member in the target year (2030) with the increase of the doctoral student variable is 35.36, the master student variable is 31.88, the grant variable is 31.51, The research project variable will be 31.47 and the sabbatical leave variable will be 31.2.But by calculating the cost-effectiveness of each of the variables in order to have a better strategic plan by increasing the budget of each variable by an equal amount, the average articles of each faculty member in the target year was: Ph.D. student 36.62, sabbatical leave 31.77, research project 31.37, master's student 31.19 and grant 31.16

According to the obtained results, three scenarios were suggested as the best scenarios to increase the number of articles by academic staff members at Ferdowsi University of Mashhad. Increasing the number of doctoral students, both with limited financial resources and with regard to a limited budget, is considered the best scenario for increasing the number of articles.Assuming that the university does not have a policy to increase the ratio of doctoral students to faculty members for any reason, the best scenario after that is to invest in the sabbatical leave variable.Currency restrictions and the absence of faculty members in the university may make the sabbatical leave not among the priorities of the university. Therefore, in this case, the third proposal scenario-based to increase the faculty members’ articles on this research is to increase the number of research projects.