Scenario Planning of Iran’s Energy Futures by Combining Incasting Approach and Morphological Analysis by Combining Incasting Approach and Morphological Analysis

Due to the complexities of energy scenario planning and the need for library studies and extensive quantitative and qualitative models, scenario planning is not possible in some internal studies due to research limitations. On the other hand, it is also problematic to use global scenarios without the necessary changes for domestic conditions, due to Iran's specific energy drives. Accordingly, the main purpose of this study is to develop energy scenarios for Iran based on the intersection of global energy scenarios and internal uncertainties of Iran's future energy, using an innovative combination of incasting scenario approach and morphological analysis. In this regard, after identifying the factors affecting Iran's energy future based on library studies and exploratory interviews, key uncertainties of Iran's energy future were obtained using delphi method, cross impact analysis and MicMac software, which included sanctions and the type of Iranian energy market. In addition, after reviewing global energy scenarios from reputable international institutions, based on the views of the focus group, the scenario of the World Energy Council 2060 was selected as the selected scenario. Then, based on the opinions of experts, with the help of morphological analysis logic and Wizard scenario software, three scenarios "Apocalypse Now", "New Age" and "Interstellar" were identified as compatible scenarios for Iran's energy future and developed with an incasting approach. Policy recommendations were also tailored to each scenario, and based on the results of this study, it is recommended that researchers examine the robustness of the country's energy science and technology priorities such as solar energy, wind energy and hydrogen energy in the scenarios resulting from this study.