Analysis of the Effects of Geographical Factors and Climate Change on the Amount of Road Accidents

Road accidents are killing a large number of citizens every year and it is actually considered one of the serious issues of the country and Lorestan province. The main goal of this research is to analyze the vulnerability of the Khorram Abad-Boroujerd axis road transport network under climate change conditions.

The method used in the present study is double mass test, temporal-spatial analysis using Gis software and forecasting future conditions under the scenario and global climate model in a 30-year statistical period, which temporal and spatial analysis of data has been investigated by weighting method. In addition, linear regression has been used to investigate the relationship between accidents.

It showed that the most effective climatic indicators in this axis, which is the longest and most important axis of Lorestan province, are the maximum daily precipitation in the month and cold days. Also, the trend of indicators in the middle and end parts of this axis is decreasing and the amount of accidents shows the same trend. Unlike the beginning and end areas of the axis, two indicators affecting this axis in the middle areas show an increasing trend. The number of accidents during the statistical period affected by these two indicators is increasing.

The fit of the regression model for the studied axis is significant at the P 0.05 level and the most effective climatic indicators are the maximum one-day rainfall and cold days respectively. In the forecast estimates, the highest amount of accidents in the central parts of the axis is about 5-6% for two RCP scenarios of 4.5 and 8.5. The results of this research have been consistent with the research conducted under the headings related to climate and road accidents by Francois, Stoker et al. and Amlong and Wiener.