Possible Scenarios for the Future of Medical Devices in Iran with an Emphasis on Modern Information Technologies and the Effects of Coronavirus

In many countries, the advancements in information technologies and the decentralized computing method has inspired hope to take advantage of modern information technologies, such as artificial intelligence, in order to overcome the unique challenges in global health including the coronavirus crisis. The following study tries to examine the possible future scenarios in the industry, with the aim of discovering new opportunities to increase health and quality of life.

Considering the research literature, seventeen drivers, which had affected the research in three dimensions, were identified and the Delphi method was used for the accuracy of confirmation, their rankings and for the calculation of their certainty. The relationships between the drivers and the identified dimensions were measured and confirmed in the form of hypotheses and model presentations by structural equation methods. Using the cross-matrix method, five drivers were identified as risk and goal. Finally, through the identification of uncertainty and risk and goal drivers, four scenarios were developed.

The treatment structure and medical equipment influenced by COVID-19 pandemic conditions and due to the growth rate, optimal and intelligent application of modern digital technologies creates a wide-ranging evolution in this field and illustrates the possibility of achieving a desired future by taking advantage of the scenario of the formation of an interconnected global society and the realization of global health in the interaction of artificial intelligence drivers, novel production demands, sanctions, internet of things (IoT) and blockchain.