Prognostic value of intensive care scores concerning the prediction of 30-day mortality in COVID-19

The goal of our study was to determine the prognostic value of CURB-65,Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), pneumonia severity index (PSI), MuLBSTA,and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II upon admission inpatients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19, as well as the prediction cut-off valuefor death regarding these parameters. This observational retrospective study was performed in COVID-19 triagein Peymaniyeh hospital in Jahrom in 2021. In order to calculate SOFA, APACHE II, PSI,MuLBSTA, and CURB-65, data were collected from patients who were selected by availablesampling method from PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients. Thirty-day mortality wasassessed as the primary outcome. ROC analysis was conducted using the STATA software toevaluate the prognostic value of the scoring systems. DeLong test was utilized to compareAUC of scores using a web based tool.Ninety-two patients were included in this study with the mean age of 51.02±17.81years (male to female ratio was 1:1). SOFA had an AUC of 0.656 (P=0.130), but other indiceshad statistically significant values of AUC. Based on the comparison of the AUCs, SOFAwas the worst scoring system in COVID-19 as it had significantly lower AUC than PSI andAPACHE II (P<0.05); while its comparison with MULBSTA and CURB65 was not statisticallysignificant (P>0.05). It seems that APACHE II and PSI are the best prognostic factors in our studywith no statistical difference compared together (P>0.05). The sensitivity of APACHE II andPSI was 0.857 with the specificity of 0.927 and 0.976, respectively. The optimal cut-off pointwas 13 and 50 for APACHE II and PSI, respectively