Analysis of the asymmetric effects of macroeconomic variables on tourism demand in iran: NARDL Method

Tourism as an economic driving force has an increasing effect on global gross domestic product, employment, poverty reduction, inflation reduction and so on and performance of any country in attracting tourists depends on a number of factors that play an important role in the political, social and economic stability of that country. The main objective of this study is to investigate the asymmetric impact of macroeconomic variables on tourism demand in Iran during 1996-2017. The present study has been used in terms of descriptive-analytical method and to collect information and data from library studies and internal sources (central bank of Iran) and external sources (World Bank and global governance indicators. To analyze the data nonlinear autoregressive distribution lag (NARDL) and eviews software have been used. According to the results of this research co2 emission in short run and long run have negative effect on tourism demand. Furthermore, institutional quality has positive effect on tourism demand. Moreover, increase in short run and long run have positive and significant effect and decrease oil prices negative effect on tourism demand. The Increase and decrease of the exchange rate in the long run has had a negative and a positive effect on tourism demand respectively. Increase inflation in short run and long run positive effect and decrease inflation also in short run and long run have been positive effect on tourism demand. Furthermore, the findings of the study also suggested short run and long run asymmetric relationship between oil prices and exchange rate with tourism demand and symmetric relationship between inflation and this.