Energy risk management in urban projects management

In general, one can assert that energy security risks are global and significantly affect (negatively, positively) the state and development of the national and world economy. The purpose of the paper is the formation of methodical-practical foundations of energy risk management in the energy sector.

The matrix method was used in building the energy security risk assessment matrix. Economic-mathematical modeling was used. Depending on the characteristics of the dynamic series and the available information, the methods of analytical alignment, smoothing using the moving average, the average absolute increase, and the average coefficient of change were applied.

The energy security risk assessment matrix was created. The development of a strategy for the behavior of subjects of market relations in the electricity market should be based not only on the results of risk identification and assessment and the developed risk management plan, but also on the risk response plan and the method of their control (monitoring). The coefficient of use of the installed energy capacity was in the range of 32–26% in Poland in 2021. Calculations of average annual growth rates for each of the dynamic series give reason to state that the highest growth rates of dependence on energy imports were characteristic of coal (+4.17%) and the lowest ones — of oil (+0.35%) during 1990–2021. Considering the forecast values for 2030, a certain decrease in the growth rate of dependence on the import of energy resources (for coal and oil) and an increase- for gas are expected.

As a conclusion, the method of forecasting the total final energy consumption of the country was improved for forecasting the amount of energy resources in order to use it for building an energy policy that considers such variables as the economic situation and the political situation in the country. The formation of a risk response plan should be based on management plans and documentation of risk manifestations, intellectual and organizational assets of the economic entity (generalized risk management experience, management strategies, templates, etc.).