Agroecological study of the historical trend of production changes and area under wheat cultivation and population changes in Iran in the period 1340-1399

Wheat is one of the most important crops used in the country and forms the basis of food security of Iranians. Wheat cultivation in Iran has a long history over 8,000 years. On the other hand, with the growth of the population of countries, the issue of food security has become more important every day to the extent that it has become one of the most important issues of the country and efforts are being made to achieve self-sufficiency in the production of this strategic crop. The area under cultivation has always been one of the most important factors limiting production in the world, and today in all countries, officials and researchers have paid attention to this issue in order to increase production without relying on increasing the area under cultivation. The history of compression of cultivation and the consequences of green agriculture in the form of conventional agriculture show that the way to supply crop production is not through this, inevitably the importance of studying the agricultural history of each country becomes more important every day which by analyzing events find the reason for the success or failure of programs over time.

Therefore, a study has been conducted in the form of a time series analysis study and quantitative content study to analysis and examine changes in area under cultivation, wheat production and population changes in a period of 60 years. To do this, the Mini-tab software has been used.

The results of the study show the linear population growth from 1961 to 2020. During the same period, the country's total wheat production has increased from 3.5 million tons per hectare to 11.7 million tons per hectare, which shows a growth of 234 percent in this sector. The area under wheat cultivation in these years has had less changes compared to the amount of production and population growth and has increased from 4.5 million hectares in 1961 to 6.4 million hectares in 2020.

It seems that the events of 1961 to 1971 in the social structure and industrialization of the country, changes between the two revolutions in 1971 to 1981, the occurrence of imposed war in 1981 to 1991 are all of special importance in changing the agriculture of Iran. This phenomenon is called social metabolism, which reflects the effects that the natural environment (agroecosystem) receives from its social environment, and in contrast to the effects that changes in the structure and function of agroecosystems on the availability of food in society.