Feasibility Study of Iran's Natural Gas Exports (2022-2032) based on Simulation of a Macro-Energy Econometric Model

The study of Iran's position in the international trade network of natural gas shows that although Iran is the second country with natural gas resources in the world and has a special position in the transit of natural gas, it is not an important player in the international trade network of natural gas. One of the most important issues for the development of international gas trade is to examine the possibility of exporting Iran's natural gas in the near future. The present study tries to estimate and simulate an econometric model including macroeconomic and energy variables, analyze the outlook of domestic demand and balance of natural gas in different conditions of Iran's macroeconomics, and assess the feasibility of exporting natural gas. The simulation of different scenarios for the period 2022-2032 shows three findings. Firstly, continuing the current policies result in the undesirable trend of the TFP at the macroeconomic level and economic inefficiency in the energy sector. Secondly, macroeconomic policy reforms in order to raise economic growth result in a negative natural gas balance. Thirdly, for the reduction of energy intensity, the energy price reform is not a sufficient policy, and emphasizing the non-price factors towards technical progress in order to rise energy efficiency is important. In addition, making an investment decision for infrastructure development of potential natural gas supply is important as a necessary condition.