Evaluation of urban tourism development scenarios in Iranian metropolises (Case study: Tabriz metropolis)

The metropolis of Tabriz, one of the largest cities in our country, despite its great historical, cultural, ecological talents, etc., has not been able to achieve its significant and worthy share in the benefits of urban tourism. Due to the autonomy of Tabriz metropolitan municipality and the instability of its revenue sources, strengthening the urban tourism economy is one of the most important and necessary strategies for the development of Tabriz so that in addition to economic growth, Tabriz can be introduced as a global city with many historical and natural talents. From these conditions and improving the tourism situation of this metropolis, a strategic plan should be prepared based on the facts and futures of this city. The first step in this direction is a scientific study in the field of strategic studies based on evaluating and discovering possible futures of this city. In this regard, the present article with a qualitative approach using common futures research methods such as Delphi, cross-section analysis and scripting methods along with the use of related software such as Mick Mac and Scenario Wizard to discover and recognize these drivers paid. This research is descriptive-explanatory in terms of purpose and practical in terms of application.Based on the results, three scenarios for the future of Tabriz tourism development were discovered, among which; The first to fourth scenarios were selected as the first group and the desired and probable scenarios.Based on the results of the scenarios, the situation of most vital drivers are moving towards a crisis, in which the situation of transportation infrastructure is in the worst situation and critical indicators should be strengthened for the development of urban tourism in the future.