Application of the Fuzzy Theory Development in the Uncertainty Analysis of Water Supply System Performance Indexes

Message:
Article Type:
Research/Original Article (دارای رتبه معتبر)
Abstract:

The purpose of the research is to calculate the performance indexes of water supply system based on perspective of classical and fuzzy probabilities using three-different fuzzy membership function under climate scenarios in baseline period (1977-2001) and future (2015-2040) in the Marun Basin. First, the effects of climate change on temperature and precipitation were estimated for the period of 2015-2040 using climate models of the fifth report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. For the same period, ANN were used to determine the changes in inflow to reservoir and the irrigation water requirements were determined using Cropwat. Then, the water supply system was modeled with WEAP, the goal of which was to maximize the water delivered to the points of need based on the defined conditions. The crisp and fuzzy water supply system performance indexes were then calculated. Results showed that under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, temperature will increase by 19, 20, 21%, and precipitation will decrease by 5% and increase by 14 and 15%, respectively. Future irrigation water requirements will increase relative to baseline, while inflow to the reservoir will decrease under RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 and increase under RCP 8.5. Also, the results showed that (1) the resiliency and vulnerability in the fuzzy environment with Gaussian and exponential fuzzy membership functions increases compared to the crisp environment, and (2) the choice of the type of fuzzy membership function is very important in extracting the results and so the fuzzy membership functions with fuzzy core perform very well in water resource management problems.

Language:
Persian
Published:
Iran Water Resources Research, Volume:19 Issue: 1, 2023
Pages:
84 to 101
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